It may be tempting to think that just because Chief Justice Rehnquist is conservative, it doesn’t really matter if President Bush names another conservative to replace him when he retires. And the Supreme Court Nominations Blog has done an analysis of the Supreme Court’s last several terms which concludes that Rehnquist didn’t cast the deciding vote in very many controversial cases in the last five years.
It would be a mistake, though, to conclude that who replaces Chief Justice Rehnquist is no big deal.
First, not all conservative Justices are alike. While Chief Justice Rehnquist is undeniably conservative, there are significant differences between him and Justices Justices Scalia and Thomas – and we focus on those two not because we picked their names out of a hat, but because President Bush has identified them as his model Justices. Both of these Justices are more hostile to women’s fundamental rights than is Chief Justice Rehnquist, so a court with more members like Scalia and Thomas could, in the long run, limit women’s rights in ways the current Court has not.
For instance:
- Equal protection of the laws: Justice Scalia was the only member of the court who argued that the state-run Virginia Military Institute should be allowed to exclude women from admission based on stereotypes about the way women learn. Chief Justice Rehnquist agreed with the majority of the Court that excluding women violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. (Justice Thomas didn’t participate in this case.)
- Affirmative action: Justices Thomas and Scalia both believe that affirmative action is always unconstitutional, while Chief Justice Rehnquist agrees that the important goal of educational diversity could justify affirmative action programs in some cases.
- Congress’ power to pass laws important to American women: Justices Thomas and Scalia voted to strike down part of the Family and Medical Leave Act, while Chief Justice Rehnquist wrote that the Congress was acting within its power to combat sex discrimination when it passed the law.
For more examples, see here (.pdf file).
Second, as Howard Bashman pointed out on the blog How Appealing, “it's impossible to measure the impact [a given Justice’s vote] would have in the future in cases and on issues we cannot even imagine now.” We agree that it’s impossible to know what the makeup of the Supreme Court will be over the 30 or 40 years that a new Justice will likely serve on the bench, and what impact that new Justice would have. And, we’d add: we do know that even one new Justice in the mold of Clarence Thomas or Antonin Scalia could be in a position to do serious harm to women’s rights for decades to come.
Third, it’s important to remember that Rehnquist is not just any Supreme Court Justice—he’s the Chief Justice. Thus, if he retires there will be an opening for Chief Justice. While the Chief Justice’s vote doesn’t have any more weight than those of the other eight Justices, he can influence the Supreme Court’s decision-making in other very real ways, such as by assigning who writes opinions. For more information, see here (.pdf file).
Bottom line: yes, it’s a pretty big deal.
judicial nominations supreme court